Applied Mathematics Seminar
Michelle Quirk
National Intelligence University and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
Soft metrics for decision analysis under uncertainty
Abstract: Modern decision making challenges the human capacity to reason in an
environment of uncertainty, imprecision, and incompleteness of
information. Probability measures are not well-suited when the evidence
is scarce and unreliable. Built from fuzzy sets, possibility metrics
overcomes some of the restrictions and insufficiencies of probabilities,
in a complementary, yet not competitive manner. We show the theoretical
foundation and the interdisciplinary approach required to devise soft
metrics as attributes of decision criteria that cannot be expressed
numerically. This talk concludes with an example of soft metrics used in
real-world ranking exercises.
Monday September 22, 2014 at 4:00 PM in SEO 636